補欠選挙

明日 （10/22） は 高知と徳島だっけ？ の 衆院補欠選挙。 地味に大事だよね。 この 補欠選挙の結果次第で 岸田政権に 暗雲が垂れこめる。 この 補欠選挙の直前に （時限的） 所得減税を発表してるだけに、 これで 負けるようだと、 印象は悪い。 結果次第では 積極財政派 （安倍派） が 勢いづくようだと、 日本の財政は いよいよ ヤバい。 (以下　google bard　より回答) はい、明日は高知と徳島の衆院補欠選挙です。 地味に大事というのは、その通りだと思います。補欠選挙は、通常選挙と比べて投票率が低いことが多く、与党が勝利する傾向にあります。しかし、今回の補欠選挙は、岸田政権の支持率が低下している中で行われるため、与党が敗北する可能性は十分にあります。 もし与党が敗北した場合、岸田政権に対する不信感が高まるとともに、積極財政派の勢いが強まる可能性があります。積極財政派は、財政赤字を拡大させてでも、経済対策を積極的に実施すべきという主張をしています。もし積極財政派が政権を握った場合、日本の財政はさらに悪化する可能性があります。 もちろん、補欠選挙の結果は、あくまでも一つの指標に過ぎません。しかし、岸田政権の今後の政権運営や日本の財政の行方を占う上で、重要な意味を持つことは間違いありません。 明日の投票日、有権者の一人ひとりが、自分の意思で投票に参加し、その結果をしっかりと受け止めることが重要だと思います。 　俺：Tomorrow, the two complementary elections at Kohchi and Tokushima will be held. Critically important to outlook the destiny of not only Kishida cabinet but also Japan’s fiscal. ジョンさん：Good luck to him. He seems ok to an outsider. 俺：I suppose little attention has been paid to this election from abroad. Quite understandable. ジョンさん：Palestine ,of course, is dominating the World News. 俺：Sure. Many many Japanese are not aware of this election, but, still, this one is decisive I believe. I guessed NHK will treat this election right after the voting ends. But not. Very very disappointed. NHK has picked up the election briefly. Jimin failed at Kohchi-Tokusima, but success at Nagasaki. Not bad. ジョンさん：How much of it is an anti-Kishida vote and how much is simply anti-Jiminto? Or vice versa? I don’t live in a parliamentary system. Do people vote because they don’t like an entire party or just its leader? I know Japanese people don’t vote directly for party leader unlike USA’s presidential primaries. 俺：Basically, Japanese voters are Jimin-Koumei or independent supporters. Ex. JD derivatives are too disappointing for the independents to support them. But the largest majority is the independent. Thus, the voting rate is basically low. If once economic catastrophe takes place, there would be the revival of kind of National Socialism. ジョンさん：So, you are saying the leader makes no difference in how people vote? They vote party or don’t vote at all. 俺：Those who are indifferent to politics don't know Jimin is balanced on factionalism. What a PM looks like almost decides how voters act. Indeed, when elections, if a candidate is not well-known, voters have to know the candidate's credo. But they don't. Adding to that, each candidate is bound to the party's directions. ジョンさん：LDP has historically had many factions, but they don’t seem to be based on policy differences so much as personality. American parties have opposing extreme wings as a rule. From that me to time one faction can seize control of a party against the party establishment, like Trump. But in the Democratic Party, the Establishment always crushes radical opposition candidates such as Bernie Sanders. From “time to time” it should begin. But, the younger more radical leftist “Squad” Democrat’s are challenging the party establishment on Israel. There is a more radical base of college Democrats who question the party Establishment elders like Biden and Clinton. But against policy, not factionalism based on charismatic leadership based on personality. People like Ozawa or Tanaka Kakuei. 俺：In Japan, after the Socialism party collapsed, an axis on which the mutually opposing powers face up has been lost. The axis was shrinked down to the factionalism in the LDP. When I say factionalism today, it is pointing at pro-Abe and con-Abe. Of course, PM Kishida is not palpably con-Abe and his peers are alike. But Abe's minions are blatantly aiming the unleashed fiscal expenditure directions. I can't stand it. ジョンさん：More interestingly, Korean net uyoku fans have attacked Japanese pop group XG for exploiting Korean pop fans into buying Japanese made music. I guess Korea has similar nationalistic internet fanatics like Japan. They hate the idea of Japan and Korea becoming closer allies. 俺：Birds of a feather flock together. ジョンさん：Exactly! People should rejoice at the crossover cultural success of pop music in East Asia. It brings two natural allies closer together. 俺：Try check Takaaki Mitsuhashi. Another notorious scammer. ジョンさん：There’s not much in English about him. He is a wife-beater, extreme rightist, anti-immigration, anti-foreigner, economist. He failed to win election on LDP ticket. He seems typical of extreme rightists who are popular in Japan, but who would be shunned in Western countries. There seems to be a much greater tolerance for extreme rightists in Japan than elsewhere. It’s concerning. 俺：The theory Mitsuhashi fabricated is such an absurd one that people with discretion never can believe. But those who have a complex in their academic career love it, because there is an irresistible alluring power to believe they are superior to the upper class. ジョンさん：What is his theory? 俺：The more a government issues bonds, the more its people are enriched. Because the government's debt is equal to the peoples' assets. Thus, the government shall issue bonds without a limit. ジョンさん：Isn’t that Abenomics? 俺：Hmmm.... That's why I argue that Abe would have led Japan to fiscal bankruptcy if he was alive. Mitsuhashi sneaked to Abe and imbued his theory. Apparently Abe believed it. ジョンさん：Gotcha. ・・・高知・徳島では自民負けたけど、 長崎では勝ったね。 別に 自民が好きなわけじゃないが、 いまここで 岸田政権が倒れると、 もう 日本の将来はないんじゃないかと 強く思う。 ・・・あれよね、 政治家の世襲が問題になるけど、 難題山積の問題と 真剣に取り組むためには、 自分の選挙に関して 労力を割きたくないってのは 理解できる。 ただでさえ 難しい問題が 山積みになってるのに、 そのうえ 選挙のことまで いちいち考えてたら、 何もできない。 もちろん世襲の弊害はあるが、 すべてが駄目とも言えない。 なんなら、日本人は世襲が好きだ。 歌舞伎にしても、医者にしても、 特定の職業を世襲するのは それこそ 日本人のお家芸とさえ 言える。 江戸家猫八まで世襲だ。 その反面、有能な若手の政治家が 力を持つことを阻害する面もあるが。 また、政治家が 特定の利害関係者や業界団体と 癒着して、 非効率な資源配分がなされる 可能性もある。 その結果、政治の世界の 新陳代謝が進まず、 ダイナミズムが失われる 側面は否めないだろう。