conversation in English（再掲）

俺：Finland and Sweden have entered NATO. The mass media is warning this is the second cold war. But I think it’s not. Russia is not going beyond aggressing Ukraine. Putin doesn’t look like launching missiles into the Western Europe or the US. He doesn’t have the intention to fight the US. China is much more gigantic than Russia in both economic and military scale. But, albeit supposing China is aiming at the world's strongest country, I don’t believe it can create a globally peaceful regime. If there were to be pax-China, there would be no more benefits than the economy. It would cost too much to maintain it. China is just seeking an economic scale which is required to keep its people politically silent. ジョンさん：President Eisenhower (a great man) warned the world about the “military-industrial complex” in 1960. NATO exists and expands today as an example of this. With the Warsaw Pact defunct, it serves no useful purpose nowadays except to further the aims of the military-industrial complex. I agree with you about Putin. 俺：I believe no country can create a peaceful world-wide regime without true democracy. Indeed, ideologies sometimes justify irrational activities, but no country except China itself and its allies can share a legitimacy to support China’s domination. ジョンさん：As long as Biden is president, China will do whatever it wants in the world. It will have a free ride for the rest of Biden’s presidency, so Japan must accept this reality. 俺：It’s true. But what is China’s final goal ? If China swallows Taiwan and Japan, will China fight the US ? I can’t believe it’s reasonable. ジョンさん：They want to be the world’s #1 superpower. They want the same power the USA had in the Cold War era. This does not entail actually attacking other countries, unless Taiwan declares independence. It might mean demanding the removal of American bases in Japan and Korea, which the Asian Leftist parties also want. It will entail replacing the USA as the major trading partner of all Asian-Pacific countries. It will mean China has unlimited access to Asian raw materials. In essence, it simply means China will completely replace the USA as the main power in the Asia/Pacific region. Politically, it means authoritarian rulers will receive money and support from China just as democratic governments received American support during the Cold War. Biden is allowing this to happen even as we speak. Taiwan will be sacrificed to China to prevent a major war. Japan will be forced to reject the 1960 Ampo (which the Japanese Left has always wanted). US bases will close. South Korea will likewise demand an American troop withdrawal. Perhaps the Chinese will allow the reunification of Korea once the Americans leave, but it will then become a Chinese satellite as it was before Japan became dominant after 1894. I can see all this happening. 俺：So, will China try to forge its own territory to gain economic benefits ? Or, is China trying to make the world retrogress to the Cold War ? Even Japan during WW2 was driven by unleashed desire rather than economic needs. Is China the same as Japan ? ジョンさん：China does not want actual war, it wants the fruits of war. China would be destroyed in a nuclear war with the USA so it will try to avoid that. Japanese militaristic culture of 1800s-1945 was different. War was seen as an extension of politics, as Clausewitz wrote. The world was a different place before the Atomic Bomb. Nuclear powers do not directly fight anymore. It is too risky. China can dominate Asia economically and intimidate America’s allies without resorting to war. As I mentioned, only Taiwan declaring its independence would trigger a shooting war, and Taiwan really has no desire to commit suicide. As long as America has weak leadership China can begin to intimidate Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore economically. Australia would be next. China is rapidly developing a powerful navy to challenge the American, Japanese and Australian navies. A combination of growing Chinese economic and military power plus weak American leadership will put increasing pressure on Asia-Pacific nations to gradually draw away from the US security umbrella and economic orbit. They will each cut their own deals with China to preserve a modicum if independence. Interestingly, MacArthur saw the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region long ago in the 1940s-1950s, but he was ridiculed by the “Europe First” American Establishment. They should have listened to him!!! 俺：It’s quite understandable. I hate Abe and his macho-spirited cronies. But I understood their worth to have political power. So, what should Japan do ? ジョンさん：Japan has three choices: 1) Completely surrender to China’s designs 2) Wait for a change to America’s leadership 3) Make a real effort to mend fences with Korea and arrange a regional anti-China defense agreement of all nations threatened by China, 俺：Unfortunately, choice 3) seems to be the most difficult for Japanese leaders and their people. Choice 1) is possible but it is the doomed future. After all, choice 2) is the best and feasible. ジョンさん：I know the Americans always push Japan and Korea to move on from their difficult past and face up to the shared present danger of China, but neither country has the political will to do so. Domestic political considerations always trump strategic interests it seems. I also feel it is incumbent on Japan to take the first step because Korea justifiably sees itself as the aggrieved party. Japan needs to muffle it’s extreme Right and finally deal honestly and justly with its past. Europeans have done this. It seems East Asian countries lack the same will. 俺：I can't agree with you more. Japanese people are so obsessed with ridiculous economic theories that they are irresponsible even to their descendants. I mean, they have been passing fiscal debts on to the future generations. So, it’s beyond their scope to concede to South Korea and form a strong alliance with it. Japanese people are too obsessed with the economy in front of them to think about the future.